What Are Fibonacci Retracement Levels?
Fibonacci retracement levels—stemming from the Fibonacci sequence—are horizontal lines that indicate where support and resistance are likely to occur.
Each level is associated with a percentage. The percentage is how much of a prior move the price has retraced. The Fibonacci retracement levels are 23.6%, 38.2%, 61.8%, and 78.6%. While not officially a Fibonacci ratio, 50% is also used.
The indicator is useful because it can be drawn between any two significant price points, such as a high and a low. The indicator will then create the levels between those two points.
Suppose the price of a stock rises $10 and then drops $2.36. In that case, it has retraced 23.6%, which is a Fibonacci number. Fibonacci numbers are found throughout nature. Therefore, many traders believe that these numbers also have relevance in financial markets.
Fibonacci retracement levels were named after Italian mathemetician Leonardo Pisano Bigollo, who was famously known as Leonardo Fibonacci. However, Fibonacci did not create the Fibonacci sequence. Fibonacci, instead, introduced these numbers to western Europe after learning about them from Indian merchants. Fibonacci retracement levels were formulated in Ancient India between 450 and 200 BCE.
The Formula for Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Fibonacci retracement levels do not have formulas. They are simply percentages of whatever price range is chosen.
However, the origin of the Fibonacci numbers is fascinating. They are based on something called the Golden Ratio. Start a sequence of numbers with zero and one. Then, keep adding the prior two numbers to get a number string like this:
0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610, 987… with the string continuing indefinitely.
The Fibonacci retracement levels are all derived from this number string. After the sequence gets going, dividing one number by the next number yields 0.618, or 61.8%. Divide a number by the second number to its right, and the result is 0.382 or 38.2%. All the ratios, except for 50% (since it is not an official Fibonacci number), are based on some mathematical calculation involving this number string.
The Golden Ratio, known as the divine proportion, can be found in various spaces, from geometry to human DNA.
Interestingly, the Golden Ratio of 0.618 or 1.618 is found in sunflowers, galaxy formations, shells, historical artifacts, and architecture.
Fibonacci Retracements vs. Fibonacci Extensions
While Fibonacci retracements apply percentages to a pullback, Fibonacci extensions apply percentages to a move in the trending direction. For example, a stock goes from $5 to $10, and then back to $7.50. The move from $10 to $7.50 is a retracement. If the price starts rallying again and goes to $16, that is an extension.
What Do Fibonacci Retracement Levels Tell You?
Fibonacci retracements can be used to place entry orders, determine stop-loss levels, or set price targets. For example, a trader may see a stock moving higher. After a move up, it retraces to the 61.8% level. Then, it starts to go up again. Since the bounce occurred at a Fibonacci level during an uptrend, the trader decides to buy. The trader might set a stop loss at the 61.8% level, as a return below that level could indicate that the rally has failed.
Fibonacci levels also arise in other ways within technical analysis. For example, they are prevalent in Gartley patterns and Elliott Wave theory. After a significant price movement up or down, these forms of technical analysis find that reversals tend to occur close to certain Fibonacci levels.
The Bottom Line
Fibonacci retracements are useful tools that help traders identify support and resistance levels. With the information gathered, they can place orders, identify stop-loss levels, and set price targets. Although useful, traders often use other indicators to make more accurate assessments of trends and make better trading decisions.
Source: Investopedia
